FSW Markets
Real-time market intelligence for the luxury industry
The Fashion Strategy Weekly Markets service (FSW Markets) delivers real-time insights tailored specifically for the luxury industry. By tracking key economic indicators, consumer sentiment, and global market shifts, we provide an exclusive view into the cyclical and structural trends shaping luxury consumer behavior and purchasing power. FSW Markets produces forecasts for the industry using our own structural, econometric forecasting model as well as select machine learning algorithms. We also prepare our own All Luxury stock market index to give a clear picture on major industry market movements.
What lies ahead for luxury in 2025?
As was widely anticipated a year ago, the retail luxury industry saw the end of the post-pandemic supercycle in 2024. Despite reasonable global economic growth and positive “wealth effect” contributions from generally good global equity market performance, luxury...
To what extent is China pulling down the luxury industry?
Luxury is set for its worst sales performance in the last 15 years apart from the pandemic-hit 2020. Yet, the downturn has not been universal, and some brands have continued to perform well, especially those that have continued to succeed in China despite the...
Luxury assets have one of their best weeks of the year
Luxury assets had one of their best weeks of the year during December 13-20. The FSW Markets Market All Luxury Index closed up almost six percent. Gainers heavily outweighed losers as 13 of the index’s 18 constituents had positive simple returns during the...
A Look at Brunello Cucinelli
In this week's Fashion Strategy Weekly, we analyze Brunello Cucinelli's content strategy after the recent launch of its holiday campaign and considers what the brand's approach to content suggests about the future of luxury experience. With much of the luxury industry...
Luxury Suffers Another Poor Week with Some Exceptions
Luxury equities had another tough go around last week. The FSW Markets All Luxury Index was down 4.3 percent. This was just over 2 points lower than returns for the S&P 500 and the CAC 40. There was quite a bit of diversity among top luxury names, however, and the...
LVMH Market Share Ticks Down in 2024
As we are in the process of updating our year-end and 2025 luxury industry sales and stock price forecasts, we updated our figure on the level of industry concentration. As the below line plot illustrates, LVMH's share of industry sales has, so far, ticked down...
What Did the Jul-Sep Earnings Reports Teach Us About the Luxury Slowdown?
With a few exceptions, we have come to the end of the latest luxury earnings season, and it was not all doom and gloom. As the bar chart below displays, Prada and Hermès recorded strong double-digit revenue growth (blue bar) that exceeded market expectations (red dot)...
Luxury Asset Have Performed Poorly This Year
The Q3 premium market earnings have been a bit of a mixed bag as we have been reporting over the past two weeks. To take another cut, let's look at the year-to-date returns for a wide variety of global asset classes and compare with them with our FSW Markets All...
Introducing the FSW Markets Instagram Shoppability Index
The FSW Markets team created an index of Instagram content shoppability with a select range of luxury brands to evaluate which brands use Instagram’s built-in shopping features and functionality. The “mostly shoppable” category is a signal of customer-centric,...
Luxury Among the Worst Performing Sectors this Week
It was a generally turbulent week for global markets with most major indices closing down. The S&P 500 was down 1.4%, the FTSE 100 down 0.9%, and the Nikkei 225 was flat on the week. The CBOE Volatility Index, which many call the market’s “fear gauge” ticked up 12...
Prada Group reports decent earnings, driven by Miu Miu
Prada released its Q3 earnings in the mid-afternoon, Central European time, on October 30 and met analyst expectations for continued strong volume growth at Miu Miu. Net revenues in Q3, compared with Q3 2023, were up 18 percent for the Prada Group. The Prada brand...
No Big Surprises in Kering and Hermès’ Q3 Earnings Reports
No trough in sight for Gucci On the heels of the broader slowdown in the luxury sector and clouded Q3 earnings from peers like LVMH and Swatch Group last week, Kering's disappointing Q3 results were largely anticipated. The group, home to the fashion giant Gucci and...
Market Expects Mixed Results from Q3 Luxury Earnings Reports this Week
After last week's mixed bag of Q3 earnings from LVMH and Brunello Cucinelli, this week we turn attention to what will probably be another set of mixed results from Kering and Hermès. Kering is set to release its Q3 2024 earnings report on October 22 after market close...
A tougher than expected start to luxury earnings season
Analysts expect weak H2 results from luxury so forecasts for the Q3 earnings season, which kicked off this week, were low. So far, those expectations are not proving low enough. The industry’s giant, LVMH, which has a market capitalization greater than its six largest...
Q3 Earnings Reporting Season Starts Next Week
After luxury brands reported a generally poorer than expected H1 and gloomy forward guidance (with some notable exceptions), we are gearing up for the start of Q3 earnings releases next week. The newly re-branded FSW Markets will be previewing market expectations over...
Tapestry to sell Stuart Witzman
According to Footwear News, Tapestry is reportedly close to selling its Stuart Weitzman brand. The sale comes as Tapestry is preparing to face the Federal Trade Commission over its attempt to stop the $8.5 billion purchase of Capri Holdings Limited. Seeking...
Burberry’s woes continue as it is ejected from the FTSE 100
The decision of the FTSE Russell to relegate Burberry from the FTSE 100 to FTSE 250 index on September 5 is not a surprise. Membership in the FTSE 100 is reviewed quarterly and there are usually a change or two. One of the key criteria is market capitalization, which...
Prada Outpaced the Rest of the Industry in H1 2024, with explosive growth by Miu Miu in China
Prada Group reported strong H1 2024 results today, with revenues growing by 17 percent (at constant exchange rates), exceeding analyst expectations. Adjusted EBIT growth was up 17 percent, which was sharply lower than than 48 percent growth in H1 2023, though margins...
Collapsing Demand for Luxury Goods in Asia Pulls Down LVMH’s H1 2024 Results
On July 23, LVMH confirmed what most analysts expected and that is that luxury spending continues to cool and cool quickly. Overall revenue growth for the first six months of the year was down 1 percent, when compared with the same period in 2023, with organic growth...
This week’s super storm of earnings reports from the luxury industry confirmed everyone’s fears that the industry is continuing to slump and slump deeply from its post-pandemic zenith
On July 23, LVMH, the industry’s largest player by almost any measure, reported that overall revenue growth was up 2 percent in the first six months of 2024 when compared to the same period in 2023. The picture was much worse at industry laggard Kering, which reported...