The big story across the premium retail market for the past few years has been differentiation. Though much of the commentary has been about a luxury recession, many sectoral verticals (e.g., hospitality, jewellery, beauty) remained strong after the post-pandemic super cycle. Even many brands in fashion and leather goods (e.g., Hermès, Ralph Lauren, Miu Miu) recorded strong and, in some cases, record growth.
In our 2026 annual market preview (https://lnkd.in/eDc6bdZu), we documented that the industry had entered a period of cross-company dispersion in performance that was historically unique.
But, given the common macro factors buffeting cyclical consumer goods, is this dispersion narrowing and for all the wrong reasons?
Our FSW Markets base case remains for a small positive industry growth rate this year with a relatively weak H1 being partially offset by a decent H2 (https://lnkd.in/egK_gAvH). Yet, markets are preparing for a terrible year.
Year-to-date equity market returns are deeply negative for almost everyone. Of course, there are many luxury brands that are not public organisations and are not represented here, but correlations for what public markets can show are hovering near 1 at this stage.